Shelton Capital Management | Real Investment Insights

Sept. Monthly Review & Outlook: Defying Headwinds, the US Economy Continues to Flex Its Resilience

• Shelton Capital Management

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Key Takeaways
» Jobs market is stronger than expected: hirings beat forecasts as more people work or look for work and unemployment held steady at 4.1% while underemployment fell. All signs of a tightening labor market. » Business confidence climbed: global sentiment grew to a two-year high with the U.S. services sector showing persistent strength. 

» Headline GDP (+1.5% in the second quarter) continues to understate the underlying economic momentum. Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers, the cleaner read on core private demand, accelerated to +3.9%, up from +1.7% in the first quarter, according to initial estimates.

» Late-July's Iran-driven volatility (the VIX Index rose +25% and oil jumped to $92/bbl) followed the same pattern we have seen repeatedly: a buying opportunity rather than a trend change, and markets have since staged a V-shaped recovery.

» Income is a soft spot as real (inflation-adjusted) income has steadily declined for five straight months and disproportionately strains lower income households even as the employment numbers look strong. » Bottom Line: economic momentum can lead to strong corporate earnings and higher equity markets. 

To read the accompanying article, visit: https://www.sheltoncap.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/SAAS_Monthly_2026_09.pdf